7.27.24 - More thoughts on the election
So my predictions on the election were very incorrect. Before you move on, you may want to quickly read them.
I like making predictions, and then evaluating them because it makes me better at making predictions.
On my prediction that calls for Biden to step aside would simmer down, and that he would remain as the candidate seemed to overestimate the man's stubborness and underestimate the possibility of very high profile defections like Pelosi and Schumer. Overall, his decision to leave was very patriotic, and completely overturns the dynamics of the election.
My other prediction is that the democratic campaign would be a bit muted after Trump's assassination attempt. That hasn't been true at all. Kamala has been on a full offensive, and strangely, it feels that the assassination's salience has already receded. It doesn't feel like someone just tried to assassinate a presidential candidate. The country doesn't feel like it's on fire the same way that it did in 2020. Which is notable, and good for Democrats. Bad for Trump. It feels like there's no real resistance to her keeping the temperature against Trump high.
On Kamala, I think I also underestimated how fast people would consolidate behind her. I think that people really just want someone to rally for, and they will do all the mental gymanstics and coalition building necessary to make Kamala that person. Again, very good news for Democrats.
The megatrend here is that the Democratic party is a stronger institution, and the coalition is more resilient, than people may have thought. I think the party is going to be quite supportive of Kamala.
Another failed prediction: Trump is not being more disciplined at all. He was, briefly, at the convention. But now he's telling Christians that they won't have to vote again after this election and other crazy shit. So again, very good for democrats. With Joe gone, he can't just coast, he's going to start talking and people will remember how insane he is.
One half true prediction I have had is on Vance. Yes, it seems that Vance won't do anything for Trump as far as expanding any demographic. I didn't think he would do anything as far as white working class people even though thats his whole pitch. I thought if he had an impact, it would be a positive one in the suburbs.
But it seems like Vance is actually quite stupid as a political messenger, and has picked a lane where he is offputting to educated and high-information voters, even though his record suggests that he is an articulate and smart person. His comments on non-married women/cat ladies is going to turn off a lot of educated suburban types. He's already become kind of a joke online, being dubbed a couchfucker or something.
And whatever vibe he's adopting doesn't seem like its connecting with anyone else either. He's a little too polished to connect with the white working class the way Trump or Palin did. he doesn't get angry. He's not terribly funny. His bio obviously might connect with them, but in a theoretical way, not an emotional way. He's not good at making an emotional connection with his bio.
Again, his bio seemed like it could appeal to educated types, with its interesting commentaries on American meritocracy, what it suggests about Vance's own intellectual capacities——but he's not using it like that, in the way he was when he was touring his book. He's deciding to be a clown.
So again, Vance seems like a failure of a VP pick for Trump. I suspect that Vance is going to get some kind of pressure to change his vibe soon, and we'll see him get weirder as he tries to adopt a role that doesn't suit him.
This fall from grace really serves him right for doing something as cynical and power-hungry as endorsing Trump. The last guy to make that faustian bargain almost got lynched. I wouldn't wish that on anyone, but a satisfying end to Vance's political story is that he goes down in disgrace with Trumpism. A failed appendange on a failed race.
Now that's unlikely, because he's young and ambitious and he'll have opportunities for rebrands in the future. And people have short memories unfortunately. But this iteration of Vance seems like its headed for a political tragedy. That's one prediction I'm sticking to.
Anyways, consider me coconut pilled. I think Kamala will win. I hope she does. All is not lost.
Finally, look at these photos I just uploaded.
Four black & white photos taken on Kodak TMax 400
Cheers,
knxnts